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LINKWhat Is Polymarket? Prediction Markets Explained
Polymarket is a prediction-market platform where participants trade shares tied to future event outcomes. Market prices reflect what buyers and sellers are willing to pay; they are signals shaped by liquidity and information, not guarantees.
Prices are market signals
Outcomes require resolution rules
Availability depends on location
How outcome shares work
A market defines an event and possible outcomes. Participants buy and sell outcome shares, typically priced between zero and one. The winning outcome can settle at one unit of the collateral asset, subject to the platform’s published market rules.
Why price is often described as probability
A price of 0.60 is commonly read as an implied 60% market probability. That interpretation is useful but incomplete: spreads, fees, liquidity, participant mix, and new information can affect the price.
- Price is not certainty
- Thin markets can move sharply
- Read the resolution source before trading
Resolution and disputes
Every market needs a clearly defined question, deadline, and resolution source. Ambiguous wording or disputed evidence can affect settlement. Users should read the full rules rather than relying on a short market title.
Risk and access
Prediction markets involve financial, smart-contract, market, liquidity, and regulatory risks. Geographic access and eligibility can change. Check the platform’s current restrictions and local law before participating.
Frequently asked questions
Does a 70-cent price guarantee a 70% chance?
No. It is a market-derived signal that can be affected by liquidity, information, and participant behavior.
Can positions be sold before resolution?
Depending on market liquidity and platform rules, positions can generally be traded before the event resolves.
Is Polymarket available everywhere?
No. Access and permitted activity depend on current platform restrictions and applicable law.